Mortgage Market Update - March 10, 2025

The latest February employment figures have just been released, and while they didn't cause any immediate stir, they certainly provide the Bank of Canada with some food for thought as they prepare for this week's rate decision. Here's a concise overview:

🇨🇦 Canadian Jobs: Tepid at Best

• Jobs added: +1K (vs. +20K expected)
• Unemployment: 6.6% (flat)
• Wage growth: +3.7% y/y (up from 3.5%)
• Key takeaway: Full-time employment for Canadians aged 25+ managed a small +12K bump, but overall hours worked plunged 1.3%. That’s a weak signal for economic momentum.

📉 Key Market Rates:

• Prime Rate: 5.20%
• BoC Policy Rate: 3.00%
• Next BoC Meeting: March 12, 2025
• Market Expectation: Markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 0.25% rate cut this Wednesday, which would bring prime below 5% for the first time since 2022.

How does that compare to our own poll?

🗳️ Your votes so far:

• 68% expect a 25 bps cut
• 32% predict no change

👏 Thanks to everyone who voted! If you haven’t yet, cast your vote here: Rate Announcement Poll »

If you have any questions about the current market, interest rates, or your mortgage options, don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m happy to help!

Best,

Matt Parker